Matteo Bondesan

Matteo Bondesan

Research Fellow and PhD Candidate; Doctoral Fellow

University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto

I am a Research Fellow and Ph.D. Candidate at the University of Turin (ESOMAS Department) and a Doctoral Fellow at the Collegio Carlo Alberto. My research interests include climate economics, quantitative macroeconomics and macroeconometrics to study the transmission mechanism of monetary and fiscal policy with non-anchored expectations and heterogeneous agents using HANK-, DSGE- and VAR-type modelling. I am grateful to my advisors, Fabio-Cesare Bagliano and Luca Gambetti, for close cooperation. Recently, I studied the effect of introducing bounded rationality, in the form of adaptive learning, within a one-asset HANK framework in continuous time to shed light on how individual and aggregate behaviors change moving beyond FIRE.

My current empirical research agenda builds around the following question: do households in the Euro area behave according to a non-anchored expectations system in their consumption/investment optimal decisions?

On the policy side, I have collaborated with international organizations (e.g. IOSCO, ECB, and EIB) to study the policy implications of regulatory changes.

Please, have a look at my curriculum vitae or résumé.

Interests
  • Macroeconomics
  • Climate Economics
  • Monetary and Fiscal Policy
  • Macroeconometrics
  • Finance/Asset Pricing
  • Oversight of Financial Market Infrastructures
  • Machine Learning
Education
  • Ph.D. in Economics, 2026 (expected)

    University of Turin and Collegio Carlo Alberto

  • M.A. in Econometrics and Quantitative Economics, 2021

    Emory University

  • Ph.D. in Economics (all but dissertation), 2018 - 2021

    Emory University

  • M.A. in Economics, 2015

    Collegio Carlo Alberto

  • M.Sc. in Economics, 2014

    University of Turin

  • B.Sc. in Economics, 2012

    University of Turin

Skills

Macroeconometrics
Monetary Policy
Macroeconomics
Climate Economics
Data Analytics
FMIs
VAR / DSGE / HANK
MATLAB
Stata
Python
Julia
R
SQL
Eviews
LaTeX
Github
Philosophy

Experience

 
 
 
 
 
Research Assistant to Prof. Ivan Petrella
Jan 2025 – Apr 2025 Turin (Italy)
Robustness analysis on THANK models for a resubmission of the paper titled Consumer Durables in T(H)ANK Economies.
 
 
 
 
 
Adjunct Lecturer
SAA - School of Management, University of Turin
Sep 2024 – Sep 2025 Turin (Italy)
Courses: Macroeconomics.
 
 
 
 
 
Adjunct Professor
Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS), University of Turin
Sep 2024 – Sep 2025 Turin (Italy)
Courses: Macroeconomics.
 
 
 
 
 
Research Fellow
Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS), University of Turin
Apr 2024 – Present Turin (Italy)
Assegno di Ricerca PRIN-PNRR, “Measuring, managing and hedging indirect climate-transition risk”, Principal Investigator Prof. Luca Regis.
 
 
 
 
 
External Collaborator
SAA - School of Management, University of Turin
Sep 2023 – Aug 2024 Turin (Italy)
Courses: Macroeconomics.
 
 
 
 
 
Adjunct Professor
Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics (ESOMAS), University of Turin
Sep 2023 – Aug 2024 Turin (Italy)
Courses: Macroeconomics; Econometrics.
 
 
 
 
 
Research Assistant to Prof. Elsa Fornero
Feb 2023 – Jul 2023 Turin (Italy)
Prof. Fornero is an Honorary Professor at the University of Turin, Honorary Fellow at Collegio Carlo Alberto, Scientific Coordinator of CeRP, and served as the Minister of Labour, Social Policies, and Equal Opportunities in Italy from 2011 until 2013.
 
 
 
 
 
PhD Intern
Dec 2022 – Dec 2023 Madrid (Spain)

IOSCO is the global standard setter for securities markets regulation.

Responsibilities include:

 
 
 
 
 
PhD Candidate
Nov 2022 – Present Turin (Italy)

Department of Economics, Social Studies, Applied Mathematics and Statistics:

  • PhD dissertation.
  • My research investigates the transmission mechanism of monetary and fiscal policy with unanchored expectations and heterogeneous agents using HANK-, DSGE- and VAR-type modelling.
  • PhD program: https://www.phdpareto.carloalberto.org.
 
 
 
 
 
Oversight Specialist
Jul 2016 – Sep 2022 Frankfurt am Main (Germany)

Responsibilities include:

During such a timespan, I started off as a trainee in the Directorate General Market Operations before being promoted to become an analyst in the Directorate General Market Infrastructures and Payments (DGMIP). After leaving the ECB to pursue my doctoral studies at Emory University, I returned to work as an Oversight Specialist in the Oversight division in DGMIP.

 
 
 
 
 
Ph.D Student and Laney Graduate School Fellow
Jul 2018 – Dec 2021 Atlanta (USA)

Department of Economics:

  • Ph.D studies (All but dissertation).
  • Instructor of Intermediate Macroeconomics (Undergraduate).
  • Co-instructor of Quantitative Methods for Economics I and II (Math camp, Graduate).
  • Various Teaching and Research Assistantships (see CV for details).
  • Full coursework.
  • Successfully passed the three required core exams: Microeconomics, Macroeconomics and Probability & Statistics.
  • Fun-fact: 2019 Battle of the fields (soccer)
 
 
 
 
 
Trainee
Mar 2016 – Jun 2016 Luxembourg
Department of Economics.
 
 
 
 
 
Junior Consultant
Jul 2015 – Feb 2016 Turin and Padua (Italy)
Sinloc is involved in consultancy and investment in Italy and in Europe and it promotes development mostly through the implementation of infrastructures, with feasibility studies, technical assistance activities and with investments in Public-Private Partnership projects.

Current Research, Working Papers and Ongoing Projects

The Macroeconomic Effects of Geopolitical Risks and Cryptocurrencies
Measuring firm-level indirect transition risk in European equity markets
Trade Policy Uncertainty and the Macroeconomic Transmission of Rare Earth Prices
The Impact of the Circular-Economy Transition on Green Jobs in Europe - a Panel VAR Analysis
The Heterogeneous Impact of the Energy Transition
Conquering FIRE via Boundedly Rational HANK (Macroeconomic Dynamics - Revise & Resubmit)
The assumption of rational expectations (RE) may be impaired in real-world applications. This paper introduces bounded rationality via adaptive learning (AL) dynamics into a one-asset Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian (HANK) model in continuous time, developing a recursive constant-gain least-squares routine to learn the diffusion process governing labor productivity. Key innovations resolve fundamental tensions in HANK modeling - (1) AL generates wealth-increasing saving policy functions matching empirical distributions, overcoming RE limitations; (2) Uncertainty-driven precautionary saving elevates aggregate wealth while maintaining high marginal propensity to consume (MPC), reconciling wealth and consumption processes; (3) Monetary transmission exhibits novel properties. A contractionary monetary policy shock produces decisive deflationary patterns and hump-shaped responses in consumption, output, employment, and real wage in the short term (positive impact followed by medium-term decline), suggesting a lagged reaction relative to the RE outcome. These dynamics reflect distributional channels where the savings of wealthy households boost transfers to high-MPC households, creating oscillatory convergence to the RE equilibrium. The Boundedly Rational HANK (BRHANK) framework demonstrates AL as both a behavioral foundation and an equilibrium selection mechanism. Keywords - Adaptive learning, HANK model, Precautionary saving, Monetary transmission. JEL Classification - C63, D83, E12, E21, E52.
The European Bank Lending Channel and Carbon Policy
Estimating the Greenium Associated with Sectoral Climate-Transition Risk in European Equity Markets
Working Paper - Incomplete - Do Not Distribute. Abstract - European investors price climate-transition risk differently depending on firms’ greenness criteria, economic sectors, and time-horizons. This paper examines how firm-level environmental performance affects European equity returns and whether climate-transition risk carries a price. Using an unbalanced panel of STOXX Europe 600 constituents from 2011–2022, value-weighted “green” portfolios are constructed based on ESG Combined Score (ESGC), total emissions, and emissions intensity. Two novel factor sets are introduced. Sectoral green factors, which aggregate long–short returns within Eurostat economic sectors, and synthetic green factors, which weight sectoral returns by Eurostat output multipliers to capture economy-wide transition risk propagation. In pooled OLS regressions controlling for Fama–French factors, the analysis explores (i) how environmental performance influences excess returns across sectors and (ii) whether a risk premium (a “carbon premium” or “greenium”) compensates investors for bearing transition exposure. Findings reveal sectoral heterogeneity as firms with higher ESGC scores or lower emissions typically show lower excess returns, whereas high-emission firms often earn higher returns, especially when ranked by total emissions or intensity.

International Conferences and Policy Talks

Economia del Risparmio - Dal Ciclo di Vita ai Mercati
Lezione di avvicinamento al Festival Internazionale dell’ Economia di Torino - Iniziativa Scuole
CCA Alumni Workshop 2024
I am presenting a new project titled < Ain’t Nobody Perfect - European Consumer Expectations, Carbon Policy Shocks, and the …
UniTo-Collegio Carlo Alberto Ph.D. Workshop in Economics
The Call for Papers is currently open, we are looking forward to receiving your application. The paper submission deadline is 15 …
2024 RCEA International Conference in Economics, Econometrics, and Finance (ICEEF2024)
I have the opportunity to present the latest developments in my research.
31st Annual Symposium of the Society for Nonlinear Dynamics and Econometrics
I have the opportunity to present the latest developments in my research.
64th Annual Conference of the Italian Economic Association
I will have the opportunity to present my latest research.
Banca d’Italia, Collegio Carlo Alberto and Norges Bank - Workshop on Monetary Policy and Financial Intermediation - Learning from Heterogeneity and Microdata
I have the opportunity to present the latest developments in my research (poster presentation).
Naples School of Economics - 2nd PhD and Post-Doctoral Workshop
I have the opportunity to present the latest developments in my research and discuss an interesting job market paper.
Sailing the Macro Workshop 2023
I will have the opportunity to present my latest research.
8th International PhD Meeting in Economics
I had the opportunity to present my latest research.
European Union's Jean Monnet Conference (EUconomics) at University of Iasi
Presenting my latest research.
How does volatility affect securities?
I had the opportunity to present this working project in various international fora.
92nd International Atlantic Economic North American Conference
I had the opportunity to present the latest developments in my research.
Bank Lending in the Transmission of Monetary Policy - Evidence from a Bayesian VAR analysis
Does Access to Water Supply Affect Child Labour and Education in Tanzania?
Abstract. This paper studies the impact of access to water supply on both the probability of working and the education level, focusing in particular on the youngest segment of the population and highlighting gender differences. The World Bank’s Kagera Health and Development Surveys (KHDS) dataset has been used, considering children aged between 7 and 15 years old, divided into two cohorts, namely 7-11 and 12-15. Within each subset, I investigate the existence of a gender-related issue by focusing on female versus male individuals. On each subgroup, I regress school attendance and have been working in a specified time horizon as dependent variables. I estimate the empirical specifications using probit, instrumental probit and bivariate probit models. The coefficients are interpreted in terms of marginal effects to offer a reliable view of the phenomenon object of study. The results are consistent with the motivating hypothesis regarding the importance of having access to water supply and the education level of parents as main determinants of children’s education level. A key insight is to consider the increase in the probability of not working as the mirror image of the probability of going to school. Keywords - Child Labour, Education, Tanzania, Access to Water, Bivariate Probit, Instrumental Probit. JEL Classification - O10, O12, O13, O18, O55.

Op-Eds

Shale Gas, la rivoluzione grigia a stelle e strisce (Italian)
Quadrante Futuro, Centro di Ricerca e Documentazione Luigi Einaudi, Ersel, 2014, Torino, Italy. […] L’esistenza di ingenti depositi di shale nel sottosuolo americano rappresenta condizione necessaria ma non sufficiente all’ epifania della “rivoluzione grigia” dato che depositi di simile capacità sono presenti anche in altre nazioni. Un’intera decade caratterizzata da prezzi crescenti sia per il petrolio che per il gas, ha dato avvio al processo concorrenziale che si è concretizzato in innovazione; il ben noto processo “schumpeteriano” si sviluppa partendo da condizioni di mercato, dove gli alti prezzi incentivano la concorrenza che a sua volta innesca l’innovazione. L’innovatore di base è il giocatore che muove per primo, ma una schiera di innovatori seguaci (followers) si affrettano nel copiare il primo cercando di migliorare la nuova tecnologia in termini di efficienza. Se ci fermassimo qui, racconteremmo solo metà della storia, infatti l’ imprenditore schumpeteriano parte da una situazione di equilibrio, distrutta proprio dalla sua idea folgorante (i.e. innovazione di base) che apre le porte ad un periodo caratterizzato da uno shock positivo in termini innovativi che porta al raggiungimento di un nuovo trend, posto ad un più alto livello di innovazione tecnologica. Esattamente a questo punto, di disequilibrio, entra in scena un nuovo attore, l’imprenditore “kirzneriano”, abbastanza sensibile ed attento (il termine inglese è “alert”) da individuare opportunità di latente domanda insoddisfatta, che egli cerca di colmare atttraverso la sua idea luminosa, che si concretizza tramite un insieme di innovazioni incrementali, che sostengono e promuovono lo shock tecnologico prodotto dalla prima tipologia di imprenditore. Infatti la qualità delle istituzioni, la loro affidabilità ed una struttura di mercati finanziari efficienti capaci di fornire i fondi necessari al fine di rendere effettive le nuove idee imprenditoriali, sono caratteristiche essenziali per rendere un Paese fertile ed attraente per nuovi investimenti, scatenando così rivoluzioni economiche silenziose […]

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